Berlin, September 8th, 2026 (The Berlin Spectator) – The extremist right-wing AfD believes it has a mandate to govern after winning Saxony-Anhalt’s state election, but it fell short of the outright majority it had been aiming for, leaving open the question of who will actually run the state of 2.1 million residents.
The AfD won by a wide margin, but its roughly 44 percent in the preliminary count isn’t enough to govern alone. The Christian Democrats (CDU) under State Premier Sven Schulze took just over 17 percent, while the Left Party, the Greens, and the Social Democrats (SPD) each landed around 9 percent. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly cleared the threshold to enter parliament with just over 5 percent, but the Free Democrats (FDP) did not.
AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund intends to seek a majority among other factions and individual lawmakers, saying he wants to secure “a stable majority we can rely on” in the state parliament as quickly as possible, though he appears to expect the process could take several weeks. He has made clear he is only willing to negotiate “on the condition” that core AfD positions, on migration and domestic security, for instance, are “implemented 100 percent.” On election night, he said he saw no potential partners willing to go that far in backing his party’s course.
Possible Defectors
Speculation about possible CDU defectors to the AfD has circulated for months. A few AfD politicians claim there are talks underway with CDU state lawmakers about a possible switch, but they haven’t named names, and no evidence has surfaced. What is clear is that any defectors would face enormous public pressure.
One path for the AfD could run through the BSW. Lead candidate Thomas Schulze reaffirmed on Deutschlandfunk radio his party’s willingness to help an AfD candidate secure the state premiership, saying that if Siegmund puts himself forward, the BSW will stick to abstaining in a third round of voting in parliament. Siegmund, however, has said he considers the BSW, which he views as unstable, not part of the solution but part of the problem, a comment that followed overtures from BSW founder Sahra Wagenknecht, who had signaled her party could help hand power to an AfD state premier by abstaining in the decisive vote.
A minority government is another possibility under discussion, according to German-language media. AfD national chairman Tino Chrupalla floated the idea of a minority government tolerated by the BSW that would seek shifting majorities on individual issues, calling such a model “absolutely sensible” and “forward-looking,” both in parliamentary and democratic terms, in an interview with WDR5. “That’s also what citizens want, for parties to work things out and cooperate on substantive issues,” he said. Siegmund, for his part, stressed he wants “no games” that could leave the arrangement unreliable down the line.
Overlapping Ground
A fresh election has also not been ruled out. On election night, Siegmund said a new vote would be called if necessary. Asked on Monday how he intended to secure the majorities required to trigger one, he said, “It’s not that simple”, but added that “we will never shy away from it.” Under the state constitution, several paths could lead to a new election, including a parliamentary vote to end the legislative term early.
The AfD and BSW have some overlapping ground, though real obstacles remain. Before the election, the BSW ruled out a coalition with the AfD, but the party does want to tear down the so-called “firewall” against cooperating with it, leaving the door open to some form of collaboration whose shape remains unclear.
On substance, there’s overlap: The BSW takes a hard line on migration, and both parties sound similar in calling for a return to cheap Russian gas. The BSW has reservations, though, about aspects of the AfD’s education and economic policies. Party founder Wagenknecht has voiced general openness to a “political fresh start,” but co-chair Amira Mohamed Ali struck a different note on election night: “We will vote for neither Mr. Schulze nor Mr. Siegmund.” Officially, the BSW backs its own model: a “cross-party state premier” who would govern with shifting majorities, including the AfD’s votes when needed.
Highly Unusual
For a long time, no other party backed that idea, but on Monday the SPD signaled it would be open to it if necessary. Lead candidate Armin Willingmann said he doesn’t see it as the first choice, “but if it could break a deadlock, it shouldn’t be rejected out of hand either.”
A CDU-led government remains theoretically possible, but only if every other party, from the CDU to the SPD, Greens, Left Party, and BSW, worked together, an arrangement that would be highly unusual, deeply complicated, and hard to imagine in practice. The CDU has already ruled out a coalition or coalition-like arrangement with the Left Party by party congress resolution, just as it has with the AfD. The Left Party has signaled openness to informal cooperation, but only in exchange for policy concessions. The BSW, meanwhile, campaigned explicitly on the goal of toppling the CDU.
In the coming days, the parliamentary factions will hold their constituent meetings. Under the state constitution, the new parliament must convene for the first time no later than the 30th day after the election, which is October 6th. That date also marks the end of the current ministers’ and state premier’s terms, though all are required to remain in office until successors take over. There is no deadline by which a new state premier must be elected.
The first session of the Magdeburg parliament will be opened by its most senior member by tenure, who presides until a new speaker is elected. That speaker then plays a decisive role in shaping proceedings, including convening future sessions. Under parliamentary rules, the largest faction nominates a candidate for speaker, while the three largest factions each nominate a candidate for deputy speaker.
A candidate is elected with a majority of valid votes cast. Under a parliamentary reform passed this year, the largest faction’s exclusive right to nominate a candidate applies only in the first round of voting, from the second round onward, any faction can put forward candidates, and if no majority emerges even then, further rounds follow.
The state premier, meanwhile, is elected by secret ballot, without debate. Lawmakers and factions can submit motions to hold the vote at a time of their choosing, and once at least one such motion is filed, the vote is placed on the agenda for the next available parliamentary session which could be the very first one. A candidate is elected in the first round only by winning a majority of all parliament members, not just those voting. If the first attempt fails, strict deadlines apply: A second round must be held within seven days. If that, too, fails to produce a winner, parliament has a further fourteen days to decide whether to end the legislative term early. If that motion doesn’t pass with a majority of all members, another round of voting follows immediately. At that point, a simple majority of votes cast is enough to win.
